Hollywood studios, chasing a return to pre-pandemic glory, are doubling down on familiar intellectual properties to propel domestic ticket sales past $10 billion for the first time since 2019. Yet, recent high-profile sequels have stumbled, exposing vulnerabilities in the industry’s heavy reliance on established brands. As 2026 unfolds with a slate packed with Marvel, Star Wars, and Dune installments, analysts warn that audience pickiness and diminishing returns could prolong the slump.
The CNBC report highlights Universal’s ‘Wicked: For Good,’ which earned under $350 million domestically and $525 million globally, a sharp drop from the original’s $475 million domestic haul. Disney’s ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ managed $378.5 million domestically despite surpassing $1 billion internationally, falling short of ‘The Way of Water’s’ $688.8 million U.S. take. These underperformances come amid a 2025 domestic box office totaling around $8.7 billion, per data from Comscore and The Numbers, down over 20% from 2019’s $11.4 billion peak.
Alicia Reese, senior vice president of equity research at Wedbush, told CNBC, “The reliance on franchises has been a little trickier the last few years. Yes, there’s a level of certainty … but it’s not a home run. It’s never going to be a home run from here on out, because people are pickier than they used to be.”
Post-Pandemic Pressures Reshape Release Strategies
Wide releases plummeted 20% from 120 in 2019 to 94 in 2024, with 112 in 2025 still lagging, as mid-budget fare migrates to streaming. The top 10 films now claim 44% of domestic grosses, up from 30% pre-2010s, per Comscore data cited by CNBC. Paul Dergarabedian, Comscore’s head of marketplace trends, noted, “Studios clearly feel that audience comfortability — with going to see a movie where they already, in some sense, know what they’re getting before they walk into the auditorium — is a bet worth making.”
Marvel’s post-‘Avengers: Endgame’ era exemplifies the risks, with stretched storytelling leading to inconsistent quality. Eric Handler of Roth Capital Partners observed to CNBC, “The box office has for the last several decades been franchise-driven. That’s just the way it is.” Yet, 2025 saw further stumbles like Disney’s ‘Tron: Ares’ at $142 million worldwide and Pixar’s ‘Elio’ flop, as detailed in TheWrap .
Overexposure erodes novelty; James Cameron’s Pandora innovations waned by the third film, while ‘Wicked: For Good’ dipped to 66% on Rotten Tomatoes from 88%.
2025 Flops Signal Deeper Creative Cracks
High-profile disappointments piled up: Warner Bros.’ ‘Joker: Folie a Deux,’ ‘Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,’ and ‘Black Adam’ each lost over $100 million, according to OutKick . Disney’s ‘Snow White’ remake shed more than $200 million, per World of Reel. Ticket sales crashed 51% from 2002 peaks to 760 million in 2025, adjusted for inflation via The Numbers.
Politization alienated audiences, with OutKick citing Marvel entries like ‘The Marvels’ and ‘Eternals’ as historic bombs. Disney CEO Bob Iger’s pivot to remakes exacerbated the issue, as progressive messaging in films like ‘Lightyear’ drove backlash. Looper flagged 2026 risks including Amazon’s ‘Mercy’ with Chris Pratt, lacking franchise safety nets, and Paramount’s ‘Scream 7’ amid cast turmoil.
Industry contraction claimed 17,000 jobs in 2025, per TheWrap, with mergers like Netflix-Warner Bros. looming. Jeff Sagansky, former Sony TV head, warned of cable’s demise accelerating Hollywood’s woes.
2026 Slate: High Stakes on Familiar Names
Projections eye $9 billion domestic for 2026, per Deadline , fueled by ‘Avengers: Doomsday,’ ‘Dune: Part III,’ ‘The Mandalorian & Grogu,’ and ‘Super Mario Galaxy.’ Yet, Netflix’s potential 17-day windows post-WB acquisition threaten exhibitors. Ted Sarandos pledged, “We’re also fully committed to releasing Warner Bros. films in theaters, with a traditional window.”
IMAX hit a record $1.28 billion globally in 2025, buoyed by ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ ($140 million on its screens), signaling premium formats’ resilience. Family animation like ‘Zootopia 2’ ($1.7 billion worldwide) outperformed, underscoring PG-rated draws amid R-rated superhero fatigue.
X posts reflect skepticism: @GlobalBoxOffice noted ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ losing premium screens to underperformer ‘Mercy,’ while @MendezMovieRPT critiqued Universal’s ‘Wicked’ oversaturation.
Balancing Core Fans and Broad Appeal
Reese cautioned CNBC, “If you try to stretch it too thin and you don’t put the same level of attention to details that it’s not going to work.” Successes like Warner’s ‘Dune’ series blend loyalty with newcomers. Studios ‘eventize’ releases via IMAX, merchandise, and themed screenings to combat fatigue.
Consumer products tie-ins sustain franchises—Disney’s parks thrive on Marvel and Star Wars—but flops ripple through merchandise and cruises, per CNBC links. As 2026’s franchise-heavy lineup deploys, Hollywood must navigate quality dips and streaming encroachment to revive theaters.
With top talents like Nolan and Spielberg bolstering Universal, and Nintendo’s ‘Mario’ promise, the year holds potential. Yet, persistent underperformers signal a pivotal shift: innovate within IP or risk further erosion of cinema’s cultural pull.
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