ExxonMobil Corp. delivered fourth-quarter earnings that surpassed Wall Street expectations, propelled by record output from its crown-jewel assets in the Permian Basin and Guyana, even as crude prices notched their sharpest annual drop in years amid global oversupply. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.71, topping the LSEG consensus estimate of $1.68, while revenue reached $82.31 billion against forecasts of $81.34 billion, according to the company’s official release .
GAAP earnings totaled $6.5 billion for the quarter, down from the prior period but resilient given weaker crude realizations. Full-year results showed net income of $28.8 billion, or $6.70 per share, with adjusted figures at $30.1 billion, or $6.99 per share. Cash from operations hit $52.0 billion annually, supporting $37.2 billion in shareholder distributions—including $17.2 billion in dividends and $20.0 billion in buybacks—aligning with prior guidance, as detailed in ExxonMobil’s investor materials.
Production volumes underscored the beat, reaching 4.988 million oil-equivalent barrels per day in the fourth quarter, exceeding estimates of 4.838 million. Full-year upstream output hit 4.736 million barrels per day, the highest in over four decades, with advantaged assets like Permian and Guyana comprising 59% of total production, up seven points from 2024.
Record Output Shields Profits
The Permian Basin delivered a quarterly record of 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, while Guyana approached 875,000 gross barrels daily. CEO Darren Woods highlighted this execution in the earnings release: “ExxonMobil is a fundamentally stronger company than it was just a few years ago, and our 2025 results demonstrate that.” Upstream earnings excluding identified items stood at $4.410 billion for the quarter, buoyed by volume growth despite price headwinds.
Energy Products earnings were $2.907 billion adjusted, benefiting from record annual refinery throughput of 3.979 million barrels per day—the highest since the Exxon-Mobil merger. Chemical Products posted a quarterly loss of $11 million adjusted, reflecting soft margins, while Specialty Products contributed $682 million. Corporate and financing charges totaled $732 million adjusted.
Structural cost savings reached $15.1 billion cumulatively since 2019, including $3.0 billion in 2025—outpacing all integrated oil majors combined—with plans for $20 billion by 2030. ExxonMobil completed all 10 key 2025 projects on schedule or ahead, such as Guyana’s Yellowtail four months early and Brazil’s Bacalhau, adding $3 billion in earnings power at constant prices.
Cost Discipline Powers Resilience
Free cash flow for the year was $26.1 billion, with cash capital expenditures at $29.0 billion. Heading into 2026, the company guided cash capex to $27 billion-$29 billion and reaffirmed $20 billion in share repurchases through the year, assuming stable markets. Net debt-to-capital remained low at 11%, with $10.7 billion in cash.
Return on capital employed averaged 11% since 2019, leading peers. Woods emphasized the transformation: “Our transformation is delivering a more resilient, lower-cost, technology-led business with structurally stronger earnings power, grounded in advantaged assets, disciplined capital allocation, and execution excellence.” The firm also met 2030 goals for corporate GHG emissions and flaring intensity reductions.
Despite the beat, shares dipped 2.5% post-release, as noted by X user @Kaizen_Investor , potentially reflecting broader market caution on oil prices. CNBC reported the results amid low prices, with Brent crude down 19% in 2025.
Guyana, Permian Drive Growth
Guyana’s Stabroek block set annual gross production records exceeding 700,000 barrels per day, with Q4 nearing 875,000. Permian growth leveraged proprietary technologies like lightweight proppant, boosting recoveries up to 20%. These hubs now anchor nearly 60% of output, per X analysis from @Kaizen_Investor .
Refining margins weakened but were offset by throughput gains and projects like Strathcona renewable diesel, Singapore Resid Upgrade, and Fawley Hydrofiner. Chemical challenges persisted with bottom-of-cycle margins, yet performance chemicals and recycling facilities advanced.
Analysts maintain a Moderate Buy rating, with 14 Strong Buys among 27 covering the stock and a $131.58 average target implying 9.3% upside, per IndexBox . Options implied a 2.44% move, as flagged by TipRanks .
Venezuela Shadows Opportunities
Woods addressed Venezuela amid U.S. political shifts, calling it “uninvestable” after two asset seizures, per CNBC . He noted readiness to assess post-changes but prioritized current advantaged positions.
Forward plans include Golden Pass LNG cargoes in Q1 2026, lithium entry, and low-emission ventures like carbon capture and hydrogen. Scope 1 and 2 net-zero targets remain for 2050, with Permian unconventional by 2030.
The results affirm Exxon’s cycle-tested model, with Woods stating: “We’re capturing more value from every barrel and molecule we produce and building growth platforms at scale—creating a long runway of profitable growth through 2030 and beyond.” Shareholder returns and low-cost production position it strongly versus peers like Chevron and BP.
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